The Irish Solar Energy Association (ISEA) notes with deep concern the findings of SEAI's National Energy Projections 2024, which show Ireland is currently on track to miss crucial national and EU climate targets. Despite progress in renewable energy deployment, SEAI’s report warns of significant gaps in Ireland’s legally binding carbon budgets, energy efficiency commitments, and renewable energy targets.
Even with the full implementation of Ireland's Climate Action Plan (CAP24), Ireland faces an uphill battle to meet its targets.
Key projections from SEAI reveal that:
Renewable Energy Growth Insufficient: Ireland’s renewable energy share target for 2030 is 43%, but even in the With Additional Measures (WAM) scenario, projections fall just short at 42.7%. In the more conservative With Existing Measures (WEM) scenario, Ireland reaches only 30.9%, leaving a gap of up to 12.1 percentage points from the EU's target.
For renewable electricity (RES-E), the CAP target of 80% by 2030 is unlikely to be achieved without drastic acceleration in renewable deployment, particularly in solar and offshore wind.
Energy Efficiency Challenges: Ireland’s 2030 target for final energy consumption under the Energy Efficiency Directive is set at 10,451 kilotonnes of oil equivalent (ktoe). However, in the WAM scenario, Ireland’s consumption is projected at 12,463 ktoe—exceeding the target by 2,012 ktoe, or 19%. In the WEM scenario, the gap is even wider at 2,804 ktoe (27%).
This shortfall highlights the need for stronger measures to manage and reduce rising energy demand, particularly from new large energy users.
Carbon Budget Exceedance: Ireland risks overshooting its carbon budget by up to 9% for the first budget period (2021-2025) and a further 27% by 2030 under the WEM scenario. The report warns that even under the more ambitious WAM scenario, Ireland’s cumulative emissions would exceed the budget by 17% by 2030.
The cost of non-compliance with these targets could reach as high as €8 billion due to penalties under the Effort Sharing Regulation alone.
The ISEA supports SEAI’s call for a swift, united response across all sectors. As we approach 2030, it is essential to ramp up renewable energy generation and expand Ireland’s solar capacity while implementing comprehensive efficiency measures across housing, industry, and transport.
“This report underscores the urgency of a bold, unified approach to energy and climate policy. Ireland’s pathway to a clean energy future depends on strengthened collaboration between government, industry, and the public. Solar energy has a pivotal role to play in bridging the renewable energy gap and reducing Ireland’s reliance on fossil fuels.” - Conall Bolger, CEO of ISEA
ISEA encourages policymakers and stakeholders to heed SEAI’s recommendations, accelerating solar energy deployment and embracing systemic changes toward a low-carbon, circular economy. Together, we can ensure Ireland meets its obligations, safeguarding a sustainable future for all.
Read the full report here: National-Energy-Projections-Report-2024.pdf
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